The Democrats Have A Front-Runner, Finally

A month ago to the day, we talked about how the Democrats did not have a front-runner, what a difference time can make.

About ten days ago, I noticed a shift in the Democratic party staring to happen, and a couple of days after that, new data from several sources started supporting my theory.

Then came the Tuesday night debate.

Until then, it was still an open race to five or six people. But, nobody acted to counteract the subtle momentum change that had begun a few weeks ago.

The lack of action on the part of most of the contestants and one horrible decision by one particular candidate only accelerated what is starting to look like an eventual outcome.

When you watch TV shows or read different news outlets, there always seems to be a focus on one thing.

It’s the focus on a poll, the emphasis on fundraising, the focus on twitter mentions, or whatever is the person talking about is stuck on at the moment. But, if you want to get a good grasp of what is happening, you have to take everything into account.

You also have to factor in time and natural selection.

The time aspect is simple; the first votes start on February 3rd and the voting lasts until June 6th.

In that period, you need to get 1,990 of the 3,979 pledged delegates to be nominated as the Democratic candidate for President of the United States of America.

An important note on the numbers above; they assume a first-round ballot winner at the Democratic convention in July.

If nobody wins in the first round, and it moves to a contested convention, things become very different.

And that is more of a possibility this year than it has been in over 50 years. The delegates get awarded proportionally to candidates receiving 15% or more of the vote.

Iowa has 41 delegates if the polls are 100% accurate, that would mean at the end of the night the delegate count would look something like this:

Joe Biden 11
Bernie Sanders 11
Pete Buttigieg 11
Elizabeth Warren 8

California, who votes on March 3rd, has 415 pledged delegates, that count might look like this:

Bernie Sanders 151
Joe Biden 132
Elizabeth Warren 132

*These are round numbers, not a prediction, and only for example purposes.

In between Iowa and California are New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

And in those states, it’s just as much of a punching match.

Further complicating the issue, March 3rd – the day California votes, is Super Tuesday. That means there are 14 other states, and Democrats Abroad (citizens out of the country) that will be voting too.

That means if three or four candidates are still knotted up and going tit-for-tat on votes by the end of that night, we could be looking at a long spring, and the contested convention I talked about earlier.

The contested convention, in my mind, is tied as the front-runner.

So, who is the flesh and blood candidate in the tie?

It is none other than Bernie Sanders.

Here’s why:

Of all the current campaigns, Bernie has the best ground-game and network. We “brilliant” political consultants can draw up all kinds of plans to win an election, but without a great team on the ground, it will not matter. Bernie has the human resources in the early states to get his vote out.

Bernie also has rabid fans more likely to turn out at the polls.

Mr. Sanders is competitive or winning in all four states leading up to Super Tuesday, and he’s a definite favorite to win California.

Senator Sanders also has the most money of any of the candidates right now, and like I pointed out in my article on January 1st, his donations have come from over 1.8 million people. That is pretty impressive.

But just as important as all of the above is what is going to happen. Yesterday I promised to tell you some news.

Here it is:

Elizabeth Warren’s missteps are going to make Bernie Sanders the nominee. I don’t know how smart she is in general, but her political instincts are like that of a paperweight.

All of this nonsense about Bernie saying a woman can’t win in private, with zero supporting testimony, is sinking her.

She was already going in reverse, and with this, she stepped on the gas.

Everything about the situation has been contrived, and it shows.

From the original “leak”, to denying Bernie’s handshake, to the interaction caught on mics by CNN, it’s been a setup from the start.

And I wouldn’t be surprised if CNN and it’s moderators were in on it.

And I mean this with every fiber of my being, if I were part of that campaign, after this stunt, I would have walked. Which, according to rumors, staff, and volunteers of her’s have.

Additionally, populist Democratic voters have been upset (rightfully so) since Hillary cheated Sanders out of the nomination in 2016, and this seems like more of the do whatever it takes to win approach.

Back to this, making Bernie the front-runner.

If you cruise the internet looking for articles about the two, you will find a lot of people talking about how different they are. And these people aren’t wrong; there are policy gaps.

However, to the voters, there are a lot of similarities. As Warren’s campaign winds down, Bernie’s will improve.

Watch for about two-thirds of her voters to gravitate towards Sanders once she announces her exit.

In general, the natural selection of candidates leaving the race will provide more voters to the gentleman from Vermont.

The biggest question is, in what time frame does Senator Warren exit?

But, I guess that doesn’t matter when considering how long all of this has taken for Senator Sanders.

What difference do a few more weeks make?

Poster Comment:

The Socialist's Siren Song that Sanders sends out has wooed all of the have-nots into his camp.

Now let's see if there will be some justice for Seth Rich in this whole affair.