On Oct. 15, Poles will vote for a new parliament. As the ruling national-conservative government led by the Law and Justice (PiS) party fights a hotly contested race with a centrist opposition bloc, the Civic Coalition, the future of not only Poland but the European Union is on the line. Whereas an opposition victory could present an opportunity for the EU to capitalize on new geopolitical momentum generated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in order to consolidate its unity as a bloc and strategic actor, a third term for PiS and its allies could cause this nascent effort to crash on the shoals of a Polish government determined to play spoiler.
Since Russia’s invasion, many have hailed Poland as Europe’s new geopolitical center of gravity because of its leadership in opposing the Russian threat. Warsaw’s credentials on defense are undeniable, including substantial military aid to Ukraine and a rapid defense buildup of its own. But when it comes to Europe’s long-standing ambition to forge an “ever closer union” better able to resist global turmoil, the current Polish government has been a consistent centrifugal force. Since coming to power in 2015, PiS has attempted to block measures to deepen EU cohesion and even roll back existing forms of integration, prioritizing national sovereignty at the cost of weakening the EU’s effectiveness as a bloc.
The most visible way in which Warsaw has undermined integration has been its attacks on the EU’s legal order. By eroding Polish judicial independence—one of the fundamental democratic obligations binding member states together—and refusing to abide by rulings from the European Court of Justice ordering it to correct these violations, the PiS-led government has challenged the laws and treaties governing the EU. While this hostility toward a key pillar of European integration is likely to continue if the ruling coalition retains power, the opposition has pledged to prioritize resolving the rule of law dispute with Brussels—and thereby unlock some $38 billion in withheld EU funds.