The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) undersea volcano eruption in January 2022 was larger than any nuclear blast conducted by the US, and the shockwave was felt worldwide. A new study reveals the eruption, which injected large amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere in an unprecedented way in our lifetime, might cause global temperatures to warm temporarily.
"The amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere after the eruption of HTHH was unprecedented, and it is, therefore, unclear what it might mean for surface climate. We use climate model simulations to assess the long-term surface impacts of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) anomalies caused by volcanic eruptions. The simulations show that the SWV anomalies lead to strong and persistent warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses in boreal winter, and austral winter cooling over Australia," wrote Martin Jucker, the leader researcher on the study from the University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre.
Titled "Long-term surface impact of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai-like stratospheric water vapor injection," the paper examines the aftermath of the eruption "and reveals that surface temperatures across large regions of the world increase by over 1.5°C for several years, although some areas experience cooling close to 1°C. Additionally, the research suggests a potential connection between the eruption and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific."
Large volcanic eruptions cause the climate to cool because sulfur dioxide is typically emitted into the atmosphere. But Tonga is different because the underwater caldera shot 146 metric megatons of water into the stratosphere, potentially contributing to atmospheric warming over the next five years.
Ryan Maue, a meteorologist and former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief scientist, added his perspective and tweeted, "This new Hunga Tonga research study (in peer review) is revelatory. Seriously, we need to consider the volcano as an unexpected, decade-long, natural warming spike."
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · This new Hunga Tonga 🌋 research study (in peer review) is revelatory. Seriously, we need to consider the volcano as an unexpected, decade-long, natural warming spike.
The greenhouse warming effect of 40 trillion gallons of water vapor in the stratosphere may have just kicked… Show more
Poster Comment:
BS: The S02 cools the atmosphere by reflecting sunlight. That Siberian volcano caused some unexpectedly cold weather in the South where I live. All that water sent into the atmosphere by the Hunga volcano has been coming down as rain and hail causing floods.
These guys are government scientists, which is to say they might not be real scientists.