Belarus appears to be playing a larger role in Russian operations in neighboring Ukraine following the weekend Crimean bridge attack. For starters, Ukraine on Monday charged Belarus with hosting Iranian-made suicide drones which Russian forces used it its major air assault on Kiev.
"The enemy used Iranian Shahed-136 UAVs in strikes launched from the territory of Belarus" and the Crimean peninsula, the Ukraine military said in statement, claiming further to have intercepted at least nine of the drones, which were "destroyed."
As for Warsaw's new advisory, no specific reasons were given other than continued deteriorating relations amid general tensions related to the ongoing war. But this and other indicators strongly suggest that Minsk could be on the brink of escalating its involvement.
But the Ukrainian government and its Western backers are now more alarmed at recent signaling by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who on Monday accused Ukrainian forces of plotting an attack on his territory.
"I've said already that today Ukraine is not just discussing but planning strikes on the territory of Belarus," state-run Belta quoted Lukashenko as saying. He then indicated Russian troops are being mustered on Belarusian soil, according to the two countries' longstanding joint security agreement:
"We have agreed to deploy a regional grouping of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus," he added.
These reports have been accompanied by unverified claims which circulated Monday of huge numbers of Russian troops being transferred to Belarus, such as the following:
It remains as yet unknown the degree to which a large amount of Russian troops are mustering inside Belarusian territory. While Belarus assisted with the initial invasion launch on February 24th, hosting Russians for what were dubbed "training exercises" just before the assault was launched, it hasn't played a significant role in Putin's "special operation" since then.
As for other countries in the region, Poland is growing more nervous about the role of Minsk in executing the war. On Monday the Polish government urged all of its citizens to leave Belarus:
"We recommend that Polish citizens staying on the territory of the Republic of Belarus leave its territory with available commercial and private means," the government said in guidance for travelers published on its website.
Poster Comment:
Russian troops in groups of 100 or so are being sent to reinforce the frontlines in the Donbass region.
No evidence of a large force in Belarus which is very close to Kharkov in the north. If they sent a large force of reservists there to finish training into more cohesive brigades, that would force the Ukrainians to put some more reserves in the area. This would allow the Russians easier access to Nikolayev in the south which is the gateway to Odessa. Odessa is the prize as it is a Russian speaking area and is the last remaining Ukrainian port on the Black Sea. Kharkov is also Russian speaking.