syrpers...
Canthama
I know some Syrpers follow the Syrian Arab Army FB page (which does not represent the SAA directly but it is made of ex SAA and current ones, meaning they do have intel that many do not have and they do represent the overall opinion of the SAA officers and soldiers www.facebook.com/syrianmilitary ). Having said that, I do respect their opinions, always balanced, to the point and no political BS. Their view below is crispy and tells the pulse of the Syrian Military regarding Afrin and all land occupied by the SDF. strongly recommend to read it, they measured very well their words used below, but it is crystal clear.
“A long post regarding the situation in Afrin, and in Northern Syria in general.
We are often asked whether the Syrian Military will step in and aid the militant in Northern Syria. However, before we can answer this question we must make one thing very clear.
The Turkish action in Syria is an act of war, an act of aggression against Syria and is denounced by all means.
Let us go back to October 2016, when Turkish jets hit targets that they claimed were Militant in Northern Syria, the Syrian Military Command did not wait for anyone to ask for help, and issued a clear warning and declared the Syrian airspace closed and a no-fly zone was established by SyAAD against TuAF; and in fact SyAAD and SyAAF Fighters were locking-on TuAF jets even inside Turkish Airspace for a good few weeks after the warning, and we all remember the Turkish complaints about SyAAD and SyAAF preventive actions.
What you do not know that back then the Turkish political command kept for months trying via the Russian’s to convince the Syrian command not to shoot any TuAF jets, they tried threats and they tried negotiations; and the only way Syrian Command dismissed the issue was after signing an agreement between the Syrian-Russian-Turkish military which included SyAAF having the authority to enter Turkish Airspace if necessary.
So what changed now?! Why isn’t the SAA deployed in Afrin and why the SyAAD who everyone know even the Turks, that is capable of a complete no-Fly zone over Afrin and most of Northern Syria, are not holding back the TuAF?! Why isn’t SAA joining the fight?! A valid question but put in the wrong format.
Let us put it as simple and as clear as we can: Any point that raises the Syrian flag across the Syrian Arab Republic, whether in Afrin or even in Idlib is safe from all military actions, including the Turkish. But those who seek to divide the homeland, and declared just few weeks ago that they will fight against the Syrian Military and will not allow the Syrian government to enter their self-declared administrative areas want the Syrian Government to protect them?!
Don’t get us wrong, we do not want the Turkish military in Syria nor we agree on their presence, they will be kicked out whether peacefully or by fighting them until they are kicked out.
So the correct question is not whether SAA is going to join the fight, because SAA is required by constitution to defend its homeland, and will defend its homeland no matter what and no matter who it is from.
The correct question is, would the so-called YPG return to the fold, raise the Syrian flag and work under the Syrian Military just like many other self-defense formations did in many areas in Syria and are now operating in the ranks of the Syrian Military? Or they just want Syria to go to war so they can keep their separatists dreams?!
As we said, any city, village, town or even a checkpoint that raises the flag of the Syrian Arab Republic and declares that they are part of Syria, and governed by its constitution will be safe from any military action, and will be protected by the Syrian Military
PS. For the record, the Local Administrations are a crucial part in Syria, they are protected by Syrian Constitution and are done according to the Syrian constitution and Syrian laws; where the self-declared administrations backed by militant occupying a location regardless of their origin is an occupation and taking people as hostages while holding arms against their Armed Forces. Those who want to change that are welcome to bring it up in the Syrian Parliament; but taking arms in the streets is terrorism and will be fought no matter who or what.
Finally a disclaimer:
As most of our followers know we are not an official page, we are not monitored by any official channels nor we are told what to share by any official side; everything we share here, all the work we put is from our own time, volunteering and asking nothing in return and that gives us the flexibility to share and speak of everything, and we believe we had shown the level of responsibility on what to share and what to hide at certain times. We are a team of Current and Ex Syrian Officers and soldiers, civilians and even Syrian civilians who currently live outside of Syria.”
Fog of War
Out of curiosity, but what do the unofficial SAA channels say about the US presence in Syria ? Are they also threatening military action against them ? Why aren’t US planes forced out of Syria’s skies ? I’m no fan of Turkey, but they are currently providing a “valuable” service to Syria at the moment, most likely with Russia’s approval. Sometimes its better to step back and stay quiet, instead of making unnecessary threats.
Canthama
The SAA has no intention to fight the US regime forces illegally occupying North/NE/East Syria, that is a fact, it would be a provocation for escalation that Syria, Iran, Russia and Hizballah are not looking at the moment.
Any conflict with any occupation forces such as the US, Israeli and turkish regimes, it will be done by guerrilla warfare and mostly done through local militias. Every single US military presence in Syria’s Hasaka, Raqqa, western Aleppo and Deir ez Zour are tracked locally by Syrians sleeper cells and communicated back to the High Command. Should the US, by any chance, plan to stay longer in Syria, then they will suffer as they did during the Iraqi, Afghanistan and Lebanese occupations, US military will die by the hundreds. By now, Syria and its military forces want to deal with this issue diplomatically.
Bundy We are in the middle of a grand and dangerous Chess/Game-Theory brinksmanship phase that is unlikely to be decided anytime soon. Here is a brief reading of how the Kurdish leadership & Damascus seem to be reading the situation ==>EHSANI2 added,
THREAD on Kurdish/Damascus contacts prior to Afrin : Following Erdogan’s verbal warnings that he may attack & cleanse Afrin and when as it became apparent that this attack was imminent, Kurdish leaders informed Damascus that they were willing and ready to offer two things: ==>
The Kurdish Viewpoint first: On the political front, the leaders blame Damascus for implicitly allowing & abetting Erdogan’s invasion of the country. By not stopping OliveBranchOperation immediately, Damascus is effectively in acquiescence with it, is the Kurdish argument ==>
When it comes to the battlefield, Kurdish leadership seems to be optimistic. They see early days of the operation as having gone relatively well given slow nature of Turkish advance. The guerrilla tactics that will likely be used by Kurds seem to give them confidence
The sense of confidence that Kurds feel is helped by the huge number of tunnels that their fighters have dug since 2014. Such tunnels, as part of larger guerrilla tactics, are expected to give the Turks and their local allies a very hard time on the battlefield
One point of fact often overlooked is that Kurdish fighters gained a significant experience from fighting alongside Hizbollah in South Lebanon (as part of Popular Front for Liberation of Palestine). It was there that those fighters learned how to fight urban warfare
The view point from Damascus: While the Syrian leadership is fully aware of the above Kurdish abilities to use tunnels and fight a guerilla war, the bet is that all the Kurdish fighters can do is perhaps delay the inevitable. Damascus is in no doubt that Turkey can & will win
What about the Kurdish charge that by not intervening, Damascus is implicitly responsible for the Turkish advance? The Syrian leadership rejects the charge and points to the fact that there has been zero cooperation both symbolically or in reality with Erdogan. ==>
Damascus has repeatedly asked Kurdish leaders to engage in some level of self-criticism first. Acting outside established State laws as insurgents plus feeling fully empowered by Washington is the combination that led Erdogan to intervene is what Damascus has charged.
Attempts of rapprochement between the two sides have been met w above charges & counter-charges. Kurdish position seems unlikely to change till their fighters suffer appreciable & faster losses on the battlefield. By then, it will all be too late of course to reverse course
Bundy
THREAD on Kurdish/Damascus contacts prior to Afrin : Following Erdogan’s verbal warnings that he may attack & cleanse Afrin and when as it became apparent that this attack was imminent, Kurdish leaders informed Damascus that they were willing and ready to offer two things: ==>
The first offer by Kurdish leaders was that Syrian State flags would fly over parts of Afrin. Alongside that, the Kurds offered to also allow a limited number of Syrian Army units to move in as symbolic gesture, together with a selected number of other State institutions
It was immediately clear to Damascus that the Kurdish effort was unlikely to either convince or deter Turkey. Moreover, Damascus calculated that the Kurdish offer was associated with potentially important inherent downside risks ==>
The first risk identified by Damascus had to do with the idea that the presence of a limited number of its armed units would offer hardly anything more than a thin version of a human shield. The second risk was a bit more nuanaced but Damascus viewed just as importantantly ==>
By agreeing to only limited & selective presence of State institutions, Damascus feared setting a precedent that ends up giving legitimacy to what it has regarded as a Kurdish insurgency against the State. To Damascus, such an insurgency went beyond media efforts & initiatives
More specifically, Damascus had watched Kurdish car plates replace State ones. It watched the changing of names of towns & villages. It watched new Kurdish police & other institutions. Not to forget various reports of land possession & forced deportation of other citizens
Agreeing to the Kurdish offer with the above landscape in Afrin risked a legitimization of the status quo that Damascus was unwilling to embrace or appear to agree to. Given that Damascus was convinced Turkish attack was coming, it faced being vulnerable to exposing itself =>
Having thin & weak presence in Afrin during Turkish attack risked being in a situation where Damascus was unable to defend itself neither militarily nor diplomatically as it becomes obvious to most that the plan was largely a gimmick. Damascus responded as follows: =>
Kurdish leaders would be requested to pull away all forms of what Damascus viewed as an insurgency. They would very quickly also hand all arms to the Syrian Army and other State institutions. Damascus would then would offer Kurdish fighters a choice =>
As the Syrian Army would now be fully in charge of confronting the impending Turkish attack, Kurdish fighters can either become part of the local civilian population or decide to leave towards Hasake province. In either case, they would agree to disarm first.
How did the Kurdish leaders respond to the above set of demands from Damascus? First, they exihibited confidence in their ability to defend Afrin and then they explained their firm understanding & belief that there will soon be a UNSC calling on Turkey to halt the attack.
It is important to stress again that the main calculus in Damascus has always been that Turkey will attack and will not be dettered by others from continuing its operations. The Syrian leadership did not want to lose a battle that it was forced to play with a weak hand
Damascus had long watched Kurdish leaders & many citizens act as an independent entity from the Syrian State & people. It watched them putting all their eggs in America’s basket. Their hurried offer to allow few army units & put up State flags was simply woefully insufficient
In conclusion, it is important to note that Kurdish leaders seemed to believe what they claimed to have heard from their American interlocutors/advisors – Namely that any attack by Turkey was sure to be met with a UN Security Council meeting that demands their immediate end
Last word on Russia & its role: As readers of a previous thread recall, Kurdish leaders visited Moscow nearly two weeks ago. Russian officials made a host of demands including allowing Syrian Army to move to the N border & handing back the DZ oil fields
Recall that those fields were grabbed while Syrian army was involved in a ferocious battle with ISIS in Deir al Zor. Both Moscow and Damascus believed that the Kurds also helped with the safe transfer of ISIS fighters out of Raqqa and towards positions closer to Sy/Ru forces
What is the best way to describe the Russian reaction when the Turkish Generals showed up in Moscow in the days leading up to the attack on Afrin ?
Russia Did Not Show a Red Light.
karlof1
FYI–Truth Seeking Historian and founder of ConsortiumNews website Robert Parry has passed away rather suddenly after a series of strokes. The linked item is an excellent eulogy by his son Nat providing contextual background about his career, consortiumnews.com/2018/0...future-of-consortiumnews/
Truth Seekers like Parry are very rare and he’ll be very sorely missed. Fortunately, he raised his sons well and they’ll continue his work and legacy.