China is the next great power
| SHALOM SALOMON WALD, THE JERUSALEM POST | Jul. 9, 2005 |
A few days ago The Washington Times described China's arms build-up in apocalyptic terms and called China "the first true fascist society on the model of Nazi Germany." Any comparison with Nazi Germany must set off alarm bells among Jews of the world, certainly if the description is true, maybe even more so if it isn't. What is going on? Is a major war on the horizon, and who wants war?
The long-simmering tensions between the United States and Israel about the latter's military links with China may thus become a Jewish and not only an Israeli-American issue. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice issued a public warning to Israel about weapons sales to China. Israeli commentators, always nervous when Israel is reprimanded by its major ally, criticized past and current Israeli weapons export policies. Some also belittled – unwisely – China's importance to Israel. Jewish media in the US and Europe have begun to report the spat between the US and Israel. There is a feeling of concern; many know that 30,000 Jews survived in Shanghai during World War II, and Jewish feelings toward China in general are friendly.
Tensions between the US and Israel over China are old, and not only linked to weapon sales. In January 1950, David Ben-Gurion's government recognized the People's Republic of China, ahead of many others; but already back in 1951, with the beginning of the Korean War, Israel lost its freedom to seek relations with China. The emergence of China as a great power is an opportunity for Jews, one they would be foolish to ignore.
Although Israel cannot afford to upset its only major ally, Jews must not forget that in less than 20 years China will directly and substantially affect the external fate of the Jewish people.
First, China's thirst for oil will make it the second, if not the first, foreign economic power in the Middle East. It is already the single largest and fastest-growing oil market for Iran and Saudi Arabia. Secondly, China's relations with its own Muslim population are not happy, which could raise foreign policy questions. Thirdly, China's relations with the US, where Jews are seen to wield great influence, are difficult and deteriorating.
Faced by growing oil dependence, China's official policies have so far been different from those of Europe. After the oil shock of 1973, Europe began to appease Muslim grievances at Israel's expense. China, which has no indigenous tradition of anti-Semitism has, in contrast, been improving its official relations with Israel since late 2003 via a number of visible, finely calculated steps, as if it wanted to demonstrate its political independence.
CHINESE INTELLECTUALS express respect for Jewish civilization, its great age and its influence on world history. Many see a communality between the two peoples because both have suffered humiliation, occupation and persecution, yet both emerged from their predicaments. Many Chinese students have seen Schindler's List, The Pianist and Holocaust-related documentaries and know details of the Shoah. Often, this creates a feeling of affinity.
Like most other countries, Israel maintains commercial and cultural links with Taiwan, but adheres also to the "One China" policy agreed between Mao Zedong and Richard Nixon in 1971. However, groups sympathetic to Taiwan want more from Israel than from others. Israel is expected to step out of line with most of the Western world and tilt toward Taiwan because the latter is democratic and the People's Republic of China is not. This is sometimes accompanied by hints that China was, or is, transferring technologies for weapons of mass destruction to Israel's enemies.
We do not know which of these allegations is true; but Israel will hardly be able to change China's policies for the better by putting its good relations with that country at risk. Yet how can Israel preserve its vital relationship with America without destroying the goodwill it enjoys with the next great power?
Israel has a lot at stake here. The Chinese have long memories. A senior Chinese policy adviser said late in 2003: "We are grateful to Israel to this very day because you recognized us so early, before most others." How often do Jews hear that somebody is "grateful" to them?
America's deepest problem with China is not the latter's military expenditures, but the fact that it faces for the first time in its history a great-power challenger that draws its primary strength not from military power but some of the gifts that have also made America strong: the hard work of a large, diligent population, an emphasis on technology and infrastructure, large foreign investments and peaceful international trade.
America is confused and not sure how to deal with China and, worse, its own fears of China. There is no historic precedent for the speed with which China is emerging as the world's new economic powerhouse and America will have to come to grips with China's emergence by more imaginative and cooperative policies than military and technological containment.
CHINA'S STRATEGIC analysts reflect some of their country's thinking on issues of critical importance for Jews. Jin Liangxiang, a research fellow at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies writes: "The age of Chinese passivity in the Middle East is over This does not mean that Chinese and American policies will necessarily be at odds. Beijing understands and, indeed, shares US concerns regarding terrorism and proliferation. Just as Washington seeks to maintain good relations with both the Arab world and Israel, so too will Beijing . "
In the meantime, Israel and the Jewish people must further improve whatever good relations they enjoy with China that are not subject to American interference. The Jewish people across the world has an essential role to play here. Culture is the domain to which Israel has recently given too little attention. The Chinese are fascinated by the historic influence of the Jews and attribute it to Jewish "culture." Jewish organizations should ask for a presence in China to improve information coordination. They should support Chinese Judaic scholarship, the translation and printing of books for which there is demand in China, Web sites, movies and more.
Improving Chinese understanding for Jewish history and culture – the sources of current events – will do a lot for long-term relations between the two peoples. The time to move on this is now.
The writer, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, is author of China and the Jewish People – Old Civilizations in a New Era.