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Title: Broadened Host Range and Efficient Human Transmission of Evolved H5N1
Source: Recombinomics
URL Source: http://www.recombinomics.com/News/0 ... 505/H5N1_Host_Range_North.html
Published: May 1, 2005
Author: n/a
Post Date: 2005-05-01 19:24:21 by Starwind
Ping List: *unUsual Suspects*     Subscribe to *unUsual Suspects*
Keywords: Transmission, Broadened, Efficient
Views: 591
Comments: 7


Broadened Host Range and Efficient Human Transmission of Evolved H5N1


Recombinomics Commentary

April 30, 2005

>> there is a steadily increasing number of clusters of disease, where it appears to have spread between people. There are now at least seven of these, almost all in the northern province of Haiphong. WHO officials say this is unprecedented.

 Finally, the virus itself seems to have changed physically. Vietnamese health experts say that it has evolved in the north of the country by dropping an amino acid.

The US government's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has analysed many of specimens of the virus from Vietnam, adds that new strains of it "are becoming more capable of causing disease for mammals". <<

The comments above suggest that the northern H5N1 not only has been associated with a lower case fatality rate in larger clusters, but the dropped amino acid is also associated with a broader host range.

The confirmation of H5N1 in the family of five in Haiphong signaled the start of the flu pandemic.  All five family members were admitted on the same day and all recovered relatively quickly.  The recovery in a week or two is similar to a bad case of human flu, suggesting there may be many more unreported cases.  The above comments suggest there have been seven clusters in Haiphong alone.  The neighbors of the family of five had been admitted to the hospital a few days after the family of five.  Although test results were not reported, the above comments suggest these neighbors may represent another cluster in Haiphong.

On April 15 northern Vietnam had sent the CDC a large number of the 1000 samples they had collected from people and animals.  The above comments may indicate earlier results, since the clusters in northern Vietnam have been reported since the beginning of the year.  Earlier there were also comments about the genetic composition of H5N1 changing, and recently the lost amino acid was acknowledged.  The lost amino acid sounds like isolates from China in 2003, which have also lost an amino acid in the polybasic region of HA.  It sounds like the new isolates from northern Vietnam are recombinants.  The recombined genes are more efficient at infecting mammals, including humans, but this recombination resulted in a reduced case fatality rate.

These changes have striking parallels with the 1918 pandemic which began as a mild infection in the sping of 1918 and evolved into an efficient killer in the fall.  The current information coming out of northern Vietnam suggests a similar sequence of events may be happening in 2005, and the flu pandemic has begun as indicated.  Moreover, the finding of WSN/33 in swine in Korea suggests the pandemic in 2005 may be beginning on two fronts, with avian viruses becoming more human-like in Vietnam and human viruses becoming more avian-like in Korea.  Unfortunately, both sets of viruses can infect birds which could create more mixing and matching of genetic information.  This genetic instability could frustrate vaccine efforts based on the last 2004 isolates form Vietnam.

These problems may make the pandemic of 2005 strikingly similar to the pandemic of 1918.


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#1. To: All (#0)

These changes have striking parallels with the 1918 pandemic which began as a mild infection in the sping of 1918 and evolved into an efficient killer in the fall.

I'm no geneticist; I don't even play one on TV.

That said, it seems plausible that the virus would most likely mutate to improve transmisison efficiency and host diversity, and could then mutate again into increased fatality/toxicity by recombining with its older strains still circulating (South Vietnam) with virulence increasing to just under the point of killing it's hosts before further transmission is possible - voila' virulent global pandemic ala 1918 Spanish flu or worse.

The point being what makes Marburg and Ebola relatively benign (if 'benign' can be applied to hemorrhagic virus) is that they only spread with a lot of contact and effort, and then kill their host so quickly that further transmisison from that host is unlikely.

Not so with an H5N1 strain that spreads efficiently like SARS and then kills like Spanish flu.

Starwind  posted on  2005-05-01   19:34:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Starwind (#1)

Did you see the April 1 executive order adding "Potentially Pandemic Influenza Viruses" to the list of quarantinable communicable diseases?

Press release on the order

CDC FAQ on the order

Tauzero  posted on  2005-05-02   1:52:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Starwind, robin (#1)

Now consider this in conjunction with increasing incidence of drug resistant staph, TB, and unfettered immigration.

Tauzero  posted on  2005-05-02   1:57:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Tauzero (#3)

Now consider this in conjunction with increasing incidence of drug resistant staph, TB, and unfettered immigration.

When they got the flu, it turned into pneumonia, which in those people with TB became especially severe. It was the pneumonia complicated by TB that killed them, said Noymer. Their early demise depressed the death rate from TB in the following years.

Kewl. We need a good flu pandemic to scrub all those MSRA and TB carriers outta da population.

Maybe we could barricade our borders with H5N1-infected chicken ranches?

Starwind  posted on  2005-05-02   2:09:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Tauzero, Zipporah, Starwind (#3)

UC Berkeley Demographer Finds Undetected Tuberculosis May Have Been Real Killer in 1918 Flu Epidemic

He added that tuberculosis creates cavities in the lungs that are notorious breeding grounds for staphylococcus A bacteria which causes a pneumonia that was actually the killer in 1918.

Noymer's findings explain a peculiarity of the 1918 pandemic that killed at least 20 million people worldwide.

Normally, the influenza virus is not lethal to young and middle-aged people. Most of its victims are elderly. But in 1918, the typical victim was a man between the ages of 20 and 40, a group that normally has a very low death rate, said Noymer.

That is interesting.
There are now at least seven of these, almost all in the northern province of Haiphong. WHO officials say this is unprecedented.

Here's the link to WHO on TB.

From CDC: Questions and Answers About TB

The Difference Between Latent TB Infection and
Active TB Disease

A Person with Latent TB Infection

A Person with Active TB Disease

  • Has no symptoms
  • Does not feel sick
  • Cannot spread TB to others
  • Usually has a positive skin test or QuantiFERON-TB® Gold test
  • Has a normal chest x-ray and sputum test
  • Has symptoms that may include:
    • a bad cough that lasts longer than 2 weeks
    • pain in the chest
    • coughing up blood or sputum
    • weakness or fatigue
    • weight loss
    • no appetite
    • chills
    • fever
    • sweating at night
  • May spread TB to others
  • Usually has a positive skin test or QuantiFERON®-TB Gold test
  • May have an abnormal chest x-ray, or positive sputum smear or culture

robin  posted on  2005-05-02   9:57:30 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Tauzero, robin (#3)

If so, such a deadly flu may not occur again, at least not in the United States which has low rates of TB infection, reports Andrew Noymer, UC Berkeley doctoral student in demography, a department in the College of Letters and Science. He published his findings in the current (September) issue of Population and Development Review, the main journal of the Population Council.

That was 5 years ago..

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ascribed 42 percent of all new TB cases to 'foreign born' people who have up to eight times higher incidences apparently, 66 percent of all TB cases coming to America originate in Mexico, the Philippines and Vietnam."

"Contrary to common belief, tuberculosis (TB) has not been wiped out in the United States, mostly due to illegal migration. In 1995, there was an outbreak of TB in an Alexandria high school, when 36 high-school students caught the disease from a foreign student.4 The four greatest immigrant magnet states have over half the TB cases in the U.S.5 In 1992, 27 percent of the TB cases in the United States were among the foreign-born; in California, it was 61 percent of the cases; in Hawaii, 83 percent; and in Washington state, 46 percent. The Queens, New York, health department attributed 81 percent of new TB cases in 2001 to immigrants."

"By default, we grant health passes to illegal aliens. Yet many illegal aliens harbor fatal diseases that American medicine fought and vanquished long ago, such as drug-resistant tuberculosis, malaria, leprosy, plague, polio, dengue, and Chagas disease."

“What is unseen is their [illegal aliens’] free medical care that has degraded and closed some of America’s finest emergency medical facilities, and caused hospital bankruptcies: 84 California hospitals are closing their doors.”

—Madeleine Peiner Cosman, Ph.D., Esq. “Illegal Aliens and American Medicine,” Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Spring 2005

Zipporah  posted on  2005-05-02   11:18:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Zipporah (#6)

"Give us your poor, your diseased, your huddled masses longing for jobs Americans don't want to do."

Starwind  posted on  2005-05-02   11:28:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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