Despite expectations of inflation tapering, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge surpasses 8%, highlighting ongoing economic strains. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) records a significant uptick at 3.5%, the highest since September 2023, with Core CPI outperforming forecasts for four consecutive months at 3.8%. Amidst this backdrop, concerns loom over the sustainability of rising power bills and the widening gap between residential electricity inflation and broader consumer price indices. As treasury issuance reaches unprecedented levels reminiscent of the deepest Covid lockdowns, calls for cautious monetary policy measures intensify, underscoring the importance of prudence in navigating uncertain economic terrain.
Meanwhile, the Fed's preferred inflation metric spiked to above 8%
March CPI is at 3.5%, the highest since September 2023.
Core CPI is 3.8%, beating expectations for four months.
The 3-month annualized core CPI is 4.5%.
Inflation has not gone away
“I think the wisdom is to wait and see and don’t rush to cut,” says Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson. “They certainly don’t want to make the mistake of starting a cutting regime only to have to reverse that later.”
Despite a decrease from the highs of mid-2022, many families continue to face significant inflationary pressures. Prices have increased by 18.8%, while real wages have declined by 2.5%. Average hourly earnings for all employees dropped 2.5% to $11.11 in March 2024 from $11.39 in January 2021 when Biden assumed office. According to Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, the typical U.S. household now requires $1,069 more each month (equivalent to $12,828 annually) compared to three years ago, $784 more per month compared to two years ago, and an additional $227 per month compared to last year. The Allianz Life study found 67% are more concerned about paying bills now than their financial future.
Bidenflation and the Fed’s eleven rate hikes to reduce inflation have made housing unaffordable for many people and caused displacements. According to CBRE data, the average monthly payments on a new home soared to $3,322 in the third quarter of 2023. This marks a sharp 90% increase from late 2020, when it stood at just $1,746 before Biden took office. Rising rent and the end of pandemic-era protections are contributing to the homelessness crisis.
Therefore, it is unsurprising that inflation and food prices emerged as top economic issues among Americans in a recent nationwide TIPP Poll.
Poster Comment:
The Fed tends to favor the inflation gauge that the government issued Friday — the personal consumption expenditures price index — over the better-known consumer price index.
The PCE is a much broader index. It captures essentially more of the economy, if you will, than what the CPI does. The CPI focuses a bit more on consumers' out-of-pocket expenditures.