Despite claim that Western sanctions were supposed to target just parts of Russia’s economy and not its general population, they were specifically designed to trigger the collapse of its banking system, food production, civil construction, and to trigger massive unemployment, widespread hunger and civil unrests. In essence, in 2016 Russia was supposed to have a return of the 90s catastrophe period known as “perestroika.”
As for Russia’s involvement in Syria, it was supposed to become a ‘quagmire’ that would destroy what precious little military power the country had.
For those who ever relied on Western analytics, it should already be clear that the think tankers’ jobs have been to transmit the desires of their politicians for the future, while Russia and its allies work to change the reality now.
“The Russian reinforcement has changed the calculus completely.” From this Senate testimony made by Lt. Gen. Vincent R. Stewart, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, we had learned in February 2016 that the US intelligence had some sort of a calculus.
If we go back through official statements and the political forecasts on Russia, will we find a calculus at work?
The following is a list of most popular predictions among the Western think tankers , and some numbers and facts to reflect the real state of affairs.
The Western sanctions against Russia that began in March 2014 were designed to undermine financing and investments in Russia’s resource-based economy over a five-year period.
Russia will blink under sanction pressure in 2016.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov: Russia’s $80 billion National Reserve Fund, set up to sustain the nation after the EU and U.S. began punitive sanctions, has already spent $40.85 billion on economic subsidies this year and will be wiped out in 2016.
The combination of challenges accelerated the damage to Russia’s economy, and will foment internal unrest.
Russia is “getting to the point where financing delays in key projects, along with financing constraints on Russian companies and Western firms doing business in Russia, could cause irreparable harm to the economy in the not-too-distant future,” according to Stratfor Global Intelligence.
With ExxonMobil leaving Russia, deep off-shore energy exploration evaporated. Russia will never be able to develop its off-shore oil and gas deposit.
Russia has had very little ability to effectively respond to Western sanctions.
The Russian economy contracted by 4.30 percent in the third quarter of 2015, versus about 1 percent growth for the same period last year.
Russia’s economy minister (Ulukaev that was arrested a month ago) suggested that possibly 60 of 83 Russia’s regions are in crisis mode, and 20 may have already been defaulting on their debt.
Russia faces food shortages, and per Stratfor Kremlin is “stepping up its security apparatuses” to suppress the starving population.
Per Stratfor, Russia is involved in Syria as a strategy to force engagement with the West.
Moscow’s key objective for 2016 is winning relief from the sanctions, per Stratfor
Stratfor believes Russia will “use whatever it can–Ukraine and Syria included–to present itself as a willing partner.”
Obama predicted that Russia’s involvement in Syria will become a ‘quagmire.’ In 2015, the U.S. officials called a Russian air campaign in Syria to be a ‘predetermined failure.’
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